A new poll suggests New York’s 2026 gubernatorial race could be competitive if Rep. Elise Stefanik secures the Republican nomination. The survey by J.L. Partners, conducted among 500 likely voters, shows incumbent Gov. Kathy Hochul leading Stefanik by just three points, 46 percent to 43 percent, with 11 percent undecided. The results indicate Stefanik has room to grow statewide, with 37 percent of voters viewing her favorably and 32 percent unfavorably. A close matchup would mark a notable challenge for Hochul in a state long dominated by Democrats.
Stefanik, a close ally of President Trump, launched her gubernatorial campaign last week after a decade in Congress representing northern New York. Her brief nomination to serve as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations was withdrawn earlier this year amid concerns over maintaining GOP votes in the House. Meanwhile, Hochul is navigating tensions within her own party, particularly over proposals from New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani to expand free public services, including a $700 million plan for fare-free buses.
Hochul has expressed skepticism about the cost of Mamdani’s agenda, distancing herself from several progressive priorities she once embraced during the campaign. While legislative leaders have shown more openness to funding social programs, Hochul has resisted calls to raise taxes on wealthy residents. Her cautious stance has drawn criticism from the party’s left flank, even as she signals limited willingness to pursue long-term goals like expanded child care.